MLB MVP Odds & Favorites 2025: Judge Serves as Massive Minus-Money Favorite

We're witnessing perhaps the earliest runaway freight train by the MLB MVP odds in recent memory. It's not even May yet, and Aaron Judge is a minus-money favorite to repeat as the AL MVP.

Meanwhile, the NL is as tight of a race as you'll see in any futures market. Shohei Ohtani is the favorite, but he's joined at the top by Fernando Tatis Jr., Corbin Carroll, and Kyle Tucker, as all four players are trading at odds of or shorter than +500.

Can someone dethrone Judge and Ohtani, or will we witness a double dose of back-to-back MVPs?

🔢 Odds to win American League MVP 2025

Live odds for the 2025 AL MVP Award from our best MLB betting sites.

🧑‍🏫 AL MVP odds analysis

April 24, 2025: Judge's odds have shifted significantly since the season started, with the best price going from +310 to it now sitting at -303. The latter carries an implied probability of more than 75% chance that Judge will once again be crowned AL MVP. 

And though that may sound absurd, it's fair based on how he's played thus far. He easily paces all of baseball in fWAR, wRC+, and nearly every batted-ball data point you can think of.

Last year's runner-up, Bobby Witt Jr., is in second, but he's almost trading at odds of +1000. Behind him are a group of players all priced as distant long shots, telling us this is basically all down to whether Witt can do what he couldn't last year and take down the juggernaut that is Judge.

Despite Judge's dominance, it's still Witt who's drawing the highest ticket and betting handle percentages at BetMGM, making him the sportsbook's biggest liability. 

🤖 AI prediction for AL MVP

This is what ChatGPT had to say when we asked it for an AL MVP prediction:

"Based on recent trends and emerging talent, Bobby Witt Jr. of the Kansas City Royals is a strong contender for the 2025 American League Most Valuable Player (AL MVP) award. Witt Jr. has demonstrated exceptional skills, finishing second in AL MVP voting in 2024 with a .332 batting average, 32 home runs, and 109 RBIs. His combination of power, speed, and defensive prowess positions him as a leading candidate for the upcoming season.​

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees, the 2024 AL MVP, remains a formidable contender. After a season where he hit 58 home runs and drove in 144 RBIs, Judge continues to be a dominant force in the league. His consistent performance and leadership make him a top pick for the 2025 MVP race.​

Other notable candidates include Gunnar Henderson of the Baltimore Orioles, who has shown significant improvement and consistency, and Yordan Alvarez of the Houston Astros, known for his exceptional hitting ability. Additionally, Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels, despite recent injuries, remains a respected player with the potential to make a strong comeback.​"

🔢 Odds to win National League MVP 2025

Live odds for the 2025 NL MVP from our best sports betting apps.

🧑‍🏫 NL MVP odds analysis

April 24, 2025: As mentioned, we have an ultra-tight race in the NL. Following his 50-50 campaign, it was widely expected that Ohtani would return to the mound this season and record around 120 innings. However, that number isn't looking very likely anymore, and it's possible Ohtani spends most of the campaign as only a hitter.

That's opened the door for a trio of superstar outfielders, who will have a leg up on Ohtani if he remains primarily a DH this season and doesn't replicate his absurd production from 2024.

However, BetMGM is still seeing a ton of action on Ohtani, as he accounts for more than 45% of its NL MVP betting handle on just 19.5% of tickets. That tells us there are some big bets on the two-way megastar. I'm strongly considering betting on Ohtani again at these +320 odds after doing so at +170 before the season.

🤖 AI prediction for NL MVP

This is what ChatGPT had to say when we asked it for an NL MVP prediction:

​"Based on recent trends and emerging talent, Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers is a strong contender for the 2025 National League Most Valuable Player (NL MVP) award. Ohtani's exceptional performance in 2024, where he became the first player in MLB history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in a single season, has set high expectations for his future achievements. With his return to pitching in 2025 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, Ohtani's ability to contribute both offensively and on the mound positions him as a leading candidate for the MVP award.​

Additionally, players like Juan Soto of the New York Mets, who had a standout season in 2024, and Elly De La Cruz of the Cincinnati Reds, known for his speed and power, are also emerging as strong contenders. Soto's move to the Mets and De La Cruz's continued development add excitement to the MVP race."

📜 MLB MVP odds history

🏆 Past AL MVP winners

🏆 Past NL MVP winners

💡 How to bet on MLB MVP

First, choose a reputable sportsbook offering MLB MVP futures. Check the odds for various players. For instance, if Aaron Judge has +400 odds and Gunnar Henderson has +800, Judge is favored to win.

Place your bet by deciding how much to wager. If you bet $100 on Judge at +400 and he wins, you’ll get $500 back ($400 profit + $100 stake). Keep an eye on player performances throughout the season to see how your bet is shaping up.

Remember, future markets always see plenty of movement. It’s all about performance and perception. If a player performs exceptionally well or poorly, their odds will shift. Injuries to the player or their competitors can also significantly impact their MVP chances. The success of the player’s team can improve their odds as well.

Public betting trends play a role; if many people are betting on one player, sportsbooks might adjust the odds to balance their risk.

Expert analysis and predictions can also influence how people bet, which in turn affects the odds.

📖 How to read MLB MVP odds

Odds are typically shown in a format like +400 or -150. Positive odds (e.g., +400) indicate how much profit you'd make on a $100 bet.

For example, a $100 bet at +400 odds would win you $400, plus your original $100 stake, totaling $500. Negative odds (e.g., -150) show how much you need to bet to win $100. So, a $150 bet at -150 odds would win you $100, plus your $150 stake, totaling $250.

These odds also reflect the implied probability of a player winning the MVP award. Lower odds (e.g., +200) suggest a higher likelihood of winning, while higher odds (e.g., +1000) indicate a lower likelihood.

For example, if Shohei Ohtani has +400 odds and Freddie Freeman has +800 odds, Ohtani is considered more likely to win. If you bet $100 on Ohtani and he wins, you'd get $500 back ($400 profit + $100 stake).

Sportsbooks adjust these odds based on factors like player performance, injuries, team success, and betting patterns. Understanding the odds helps you make informed betting decisions and assess potential returns.

❓ MLB MVP FAQs

Who are the MLB MVP favorites?

Aaron Judge of the New York Yankees and Shohei Ohtani of the Los Angeles Dodgers are the favorites by the MLB MVP odds in the AL and NL, respectively.

Who won the MLB MVP Awards last year?

Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Shohei Ohtani won his third MVP award and first in the National League during 2024.

In the American League, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge won for the second time.

When will the MLB MVP Awards be decided?

The winners of the 2024 MLB MVP Awards were announced on Thursday, Nov. 21.

Who has won the most MVP awards?

Barry Bonds' seven career MVP awards are the most in MLB history. No one else has won more than three, with 10 players tied at that number.

🏟️ MLB betting odds pages

⚾️ Best MLB betting sites

Looking to bet on Major League Baseball? Here are our best MLB betting sites as determined by our expert team at Sportsbook Review, along with our best sportsbook promos.

• Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
• BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
• bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
• BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
• FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
• DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.